ZDnet has had an AJAX-related article/blog post seemingly every day for the past few weeks. This time, David Berlind discusses the threat posed by this collection of technologies to the current calendar standards now set by Outlook. There are a slew of these systems out now, and Spongecell (cited by the article linked above), is one of the cooler ones, integrating email and SMS for easier phone calendaring.
So what will it take for such systems to beat the competition? Personally, I think it's in large part a question of enterprise versus personal use. Gmail made inroads into MS Office's user base because Outlook and Outlook Express are too heavy-duty (and expensive) for the personal email needs of a lot of people. Integration with calendar and todo isn't as essential. Calendars do not have the indispensability of email for most, and viable systems will need the meeting scheduling, calendar browsing, and email integration valued most by enterprise consumers. In this respect, I still think Google has a leg up on the competition, though their calendar app is still unreleased as of this writing. Two interesting areas apart from enterprise use include domestic (family) calendaring, and public event calendars, both of which could see a dark-horse startup establishing a respectable level of adoption.
Note that adoption by a critical mass of users may not apply here for a given application. The iCalendar standard is supported by nearly every system out today, and an ability to import/export this format may be all that is needed to enable sharing among heterogeneous apps.
AJAX certainly makes it easier to build shared calendars, and iCalendar makes it easy to support calendaring on lots of applications. Indeed, my Augur system would have been immeasurably easier to build had we employed it. But in the end, it's still about identifying your users and giving them what they need.
Update (2/3/06): A friend pointed me to this post about a new calendar called 30 Boxes that sounds reasonably cool. Nice integration with Gmail and upcoming.org, easy sharing and meeting arranging, not bad. Read the comments, and you'll see that people are still looking for workplace support (PalmOS sync/Activesync, Outlook support, etc.)